Radiative forcing of climate

An update of the scientific discussions presented in Chapter 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is presented. The update discusses the atmospheric radiative and chemical species of significance for climate change. There are two major objectives of the present update. The first is an extension of the discussion on the Global Warming Potentials (GWP's), including a reevaluation in view of the updates in the lifetimes of the radiatively active species. The second important objective is to underscore major developments in the radiative forcing of climate due to the observed stratospheric ozone losses occurring between 1979 and 1990

Theory and observations: Model simulations of the period 1955-1985

The main objective of the theoretical studies presented here is to apply models of stratospheric chemistry and transport in order to understand the processes that control stratospheric ozone and that are responsible for the observed variations. The model calculations are intended to simulate the observed behavior of atmospheric ozone over the past three decades (1955-1985), for which there exists a substantial record of both ground-based and, more recently, satellite measurements. Ozone concentrations in the atmosphere vary on different time scales and for several different causes. The models described here were designed to simulate the effect on ozone of changes in the concentration of such trace gases as CFC, CH4, N2O, and CO2. Changes from year to year in ultraviolet radiation associated with the solar cycle are also included in the models. A third source of variability explicitly considered is the sporadic introduction of large amounts of NO sub x into the stratosphere during atmospheric nuclear tests

Reply to ''Comments on 'Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as much as Expected?'''

In response to our article, Why Hasnt Earth Warmed as Much as Expected? (2010), Knutti and Plattner (2012) wrote a rebuttal. The term climate sensitivity is usually defined as the change in global mean surface temperature that is produced by a specified change in forcing, such as a change in solar heating or greenhouse gas concentrations. We had argued in the 2010 paper that although climate models can reproduce the global mean surface temperature history over the past century, the uncertainties in these models, due primarily to the uncertainty in climate forcing by airborne particles, mean that the models lack the confidence to actually constrain the climate sensitivity within useful limits for climate prediction. Knutti and Plattner are climate modelers, and they argued essentially that because the models could reproduce the surface temperature history, the issue we raised was moot. Our response amounts to straightening out this confusion; for the models to be constraining, they must be able to reproduce the surface temperature history with sufficient confidence, not just to match the measurements, but to exclude alternative histories. As before, we concluded that if we can actually make the aerosol measurements using currently available, state-of-the-art techniques, we can determine the aerosol climate forcing to the degree required to constrain that aspect of model climate sensitivity. A technical issue relating to the timescale over which a change in CO2 emissions would be equilibrated in the environmental energy balance was also discussed, again, a matter of differences in terminology

Caspase-8 inhibition represses initial human monocyte activation in septic shock model

In septic patients, the onset of septic shock occurs due to the over-activation of monocytes. We tested the therapeutic potential of directly targeting innate immune cell activation to limit the cytokine storm and downstream phases. We initially investigated whether caspase-8 could be an appropriate target given it has recently been shown to be involved in microglial activation. We found that LPS caused a mild increase in caspase-8 activity and that the caspase-8 inhibitor IETD-fmk partially decreased monocyte activation. Furthermore, caspase-8 inhibition induced necroptotic cell death of activated monocytes. Despite inducing necroptosis, caspase-8 inhibition reduced LPS-induced expression and release of IL-1β and IL-10. Thus, blocking monocyte activation has positive effects on both the pro and anti-inflammatory phases of septic shock. We also found that in primary mouse monocytes, caspase-8 inhibition did not reduce LPS-induced activation or induce necroptosis. On the other hand, broad caspase inhibitors, which have already been shown to improve survival in mouse models of sepsis, achieved both. Thus, given that monocyte activation can be regulated in humans via the inhibition of a single caspase, we propose that the therapeutic use of caspase-8 inhibitors could represent a more selective alternative that blocks both phases of septic shock at the source.Unión Europea, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad SAF2012-39029Unión Europea, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad SAF2015-64171REspaña,Junta de Andalucía P10-CTS-649

Temperature-dependent quantum pair potentials and their application to dense partially ionized hydrogen plasmas

Extending our previous work \cite{filinov-etal.jpa03ik} we present a detailed discussion of accuracy and practical applications of finite-temperature pseudopotentials for two-component Coulomb systems. Different pseudopotentials are discussed: i) the diagonal Kelbg potential, ii) the off-diagonal Kelbg potential iii) the {\em improved} diagonal Kelbg potential, iv) an effective potential obtained with the Feynman-Kleinert variational principle v) the ``exact'' quantum pair potential derived from the two-particle density matrix. For the {\em improved} diagonal Kelbg potential a simple temperature dependent fit is derived which accurately reproduces the ``exact'' pair potential in the whole temperature range. The derived pseudopotentials are then used in path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to obtain thermodynamical properties of strongly coupled hydrogen. It is demonstrated that classical MD simulations with spin-dependent interaction potentials for the electrons allow for an accurate description of the internal energy of hydrogen in the difficult regime of partial ionization down to the temperatures of about $60 000$ K. Finally, we point out an interesting relation between the quantum potentials and effective potentials used in density functional theory.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figure

Toward catchment hydro-biogeochemical theories

Headwater catchments are the fundamental units that connect the land to the ocean. Hydrological flow and biogeochemical processes are intricately coupled, yet their respective sciences have progressed without much integration. Reaction kinetic theories that prescribe rate dependence on environmental variables (e.g., temperature and water content) have advanced substantially, mostly in well-mixed reactors, columns, and warming experiments without considering the characteristics of hydrological flow at the catchment scale. These theories have shown significant divergence from observations in natural systems. On the other hand, hydrological theories, including transit time theory, have progressed substantially yet have not been incorporated into understanding reactions at the catchment scale. Here we advocate for the development of integrated hydro-biogeochemical theories across gradients of climate, vegetation, and geology conditions. The lack of such theories presents barriers for understanding mechanisms and forecasting the future of the Critical Zone under human- and climate-induced perturbations. Although integration has started and co-located measurements are well under way, tremendous challenges remain. In particular, even in this era of "big data," we are still limited by data and will need to (1) intensify measurements beyond river channels and characterize the vertical connectivity and broadly the shallow and deep subsurface; (2) expand to older water dating beyond the time scales reflected in stable water isotopes; (3) combine the use of reactive solutes, nonreactive tracers, and isotopes; and (4) augment measurements in environments that are undergoing rapid changes. To develop integrated theories, it is essential to (1) engage models at all stages to develop model-informed data collection strategies and to maximize data usage; (2) adopt a "simple but not simplistic," or fit-for-purpose approach to include essential processes in process-based models; (3) blend the use of process-based and data-driven models in the framework of "theory-guided data science." Within the framework of hypothesis testing, model-data fusion can advance integrated theories that mechanistically link catchments' internal structures and external drivers to their functioning. It can not only advance the field of hydro-biogeochemistry, but also enable hind- and fore-casting and serve the society at large. Broadly, future education will need to cultivate thinkers at the intersections of traditional disciplines with hollistic approaches for understanding interacting processes in complex earth systems.This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Method

Spatio-temporal activation of caspase-8 in myeloid cells upon ischemic stroke

Ischemic stroke (caused by thrombosis, embolism or vasoconstriction) lead to the recruitment and activation of immune cells including resident microglia and infiltrating peripheral macrophages, which contribute to an inflammatory response involved in regulation of the neuronal damage. We showed earlier that upon pro-inflammatory stimuli, the orderly activation of caspase-8 and caspase-3/7 regulates microglia activation through a protein kinase C-δ dependent pathway. Here, we present in vivo evidence for the activation of caspase-8 and caspase-3 in microglia/macrophages in post-mortem tissue from human ischemic stroke subjects. Indeed, CD68-positive microglia/macrophages in the ischemic peri-infarct area exhibited significant expression of the cleaved and active form of caspase-8 and caspase-3. The temporal and spatial activation of caspase-8 was further investigated in a permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion mouse model of ischemic stroke. Increasing levels of active caspase-8 was found in Iba1-positive cells over time in the peri-infarct area, at 6, 24 and 48 h after artery occlusion. Analysis of post-mortem brain tissue from human subject who suffered two stroke events, referred as recent and old stroke, revealed that expression of cleaved caspase-8 and -3 in CD68-positive cells could only be found in the recent stroke area. Analysis of cleaved caspase-8 and -3 expressions in a panel of human stroke cases arranged upon days-after stroke and age-matched controls suggested that the expression of these caspases correlated with the time of onset of stroke. Collectively, these data illustrate the temporal and spatial activation of caspase-8 and -3 in microglia/macrophages occurring upon ischemic stroke and suggest that the expression of these caspases could be used in neuropathological diagnostic work.J.R. is supported by a doctoral fellowship from the Karolinska Institutet Foundations; M.A.B. is supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from Swedish Research Council. This work has been supported by grants from the Swedish Research Council, the Swedish Brain Foundation, the Parkinson foundation in Sweden, the Spanish MINECO/FEDER/UE and the Karolinska Institutet Foundations

Urine culture doubtful in determining etiology of diffuse symptoms among elderly individuals: a cross-sectional study of 32 nursing homes

Background: The high prevalence of bacteriuria in elderly individuals makes it difficult to know if a new symptom is related to bacteria in the urine. There are different views concerning this relationship and bacteriuria often leads to antibiotic treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between bacteria in the urine and new or increased restlessness, fatigue, confusion, aggressiveness, not being herself/himself, dysuria, urgency and fever in individuals at nursing homes for elderly when statistically considering the high prevalence of asymptomatic bacteriuria in this population.\ud \ud Methods: In this cross-sectional study symptoms were registered and voided urine specimens were collected for urinary cultures from 651 elderly individuals. Logistic regressions were performed to evaluate the statistical correlation between bacteriuria and presence of a symptom at group level. To estimate the clinical relevance of statistical correlations at group level positive and negative etiological predictive values (EPV) were calculated.\ud \ud Results: Logistic regression indicated some correlations at group level. Aside from Escherichia coli in the urine and not being herself/himself existing at least one month, but less than three months, EPV indicated no clinically useful correlation between any symptoms in this study and findings of bacteriuria.\ud \ud Conclusions: Urinary cultures provide little or no useful information when evaluating diffuse symptoms among elderly residents of nursing homes. Either common urinary tract pathogens are irrelevant, or urine culture is an inappropriate test